Spatiotemporal dynamics and epidemiological impact of SARS-CoV-2 XBB lineages dissemination in Brazil in 2023 (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 XBB is a group of highly immune-evasive lineages of the Omicron VOC that emerged by recombining BA.2-descendent lineages and spread worldwide during 2023. In this study, we combine SARS-CoV-2 genomic data (n = 11,065 sequences) with epidemiological data of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) cases collected in Brazil between October 2022 and July 2023 to reconstruct the space-time dynamics and epidemiologic impact of XBB dissemination in the country. Our analyses revealed that the introduction and local emergence of lineages carrying convergent mutations within the Spike protein, especially F486P, F456L, and L455F, propelled the spread of XBB* lineages in Brazil. The average relative instantaneous reproduction numbers of XBB*+F486P, XBB*+F486P+F456L, and XBB*+F486P+ F456L+L455F lineages in Brazil were estimated to be 1.24, 1.33, and 1.48 higher than that of other co-circulating lineages (mainly BQ.1*/BE*), respectively. Despite such a growth advantage, the dissemination of these XBB* lineages had a reduced impact on Brazils epidemiological scenario concerning previous Omicron subvariants. The peak number of SARI cases from SARS-CoV-2 during the XBB wave was approximately 90%, 80%, and 70% lower than that observed during the previous BA.1*, BA.5*, and BQ.1* waves, respectively. These findings revealed the emergence of multiple XBB lineages with progressively increasing growth advantage, yet with relatively limited epidemiological impact in Brazil throughout 2023. The XBB*+F486P+F456L+L455F lineages stand out for their heightened transmissibility, warranting close monitoring in the months ahead.

Spatiotemporal transmission of SARS-CoV-2 lineages during 2020-2021 in Pernambuco - Brazil (preprint)

In recent years, the SARS-CoV-2 viruses emerged and spread around the world, leaving a large death toll and long-lasting impact on survivors. As of January 2023, Brazil is still among the countries with the highest number of registered deaths. This continental-size and pluralistic country experienced a heterogenous implementation of non-pharmacological and pharmacological interventions which, associated with large socioeconomic differences between the country regions, has led to distinct virus spread dynamics across the country. Here we investigate the spatiotemporal dispersion of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages and its dynamics in distinct epidemiological scenarios in the first two years of the pandemics in the Pernambuco state (Northeast Brazil). We generated a total of 1389 new SARS-CoV-2 genomes from June 2020 to August 2021 covering all major regions of the state. This sampling captured the arrival, communitary transmission and the circulation of the B1.1, B.1.1.28 and B.1.1.33 lineages in the first eight months of the pandemics, the emergence of the former variant of interest P.2 and the emergence and fast replacement of all previous variants by the more transmissible variant of concern P.1 (Gamma) lineage. Based on the incidence and lineage spread pattern we observed that there was an East-to-West to inner state pattern of transmission which is in agreement with the transmission of more populous metropolitan areas to medium and small size country-side cities in the state. Such transmission patterns may be partially explained by the main routes of traffic across municipalities in the state. Nevertheless, inter-state traffic was also another important source of lineage introduction and spread into the state. Our results highlight that the fine grained intrastate analysis of lineages and incidence spread can provide actionable insights for planning future non-pharmacological intervention for air-borne transmissible human pathogens.

Predicting SARS-CoV-2 variant spread in a completely seropositive population using semi-quantitative antibody measurements in blood donors (preprint)

Background SARS-CoV-2 serologic surveys estimate the proportion of the population with antibodies against historical variants which nears 100% in many settings. New analytic approaches are required to exploit the full information in serosurvey data. Method Using a SARS-CoV-2 anti-Spike (S) protein chemiluminescent microparticle assay, we attained a semi-quantitative measurement of population IgG titres in serial cross-sectional monthly samples of routine blood donations across seven Brazilian state capitals (March 2021-November 2021). In an ecological analysis (unit of analysis: age-city-calendar month) we assessed the relative contributions of prior attack rate and vaccination to antibody titre in blood donors. We compared blood donor anti-S titre across the seven cities during the growth phase of the Delta variant of concern (VOC) and use this to predict the resulting age-standardized incidence of severe COVID-19 cases. Results On average we tested 780 samples per month in each location. Seroprevalence rose to >95% across all seven capitals by November 2021. Driven proximally by vaccination, mean antibody titre increased 16-fold over the study. The extent of prior natural infection shaped this process, with the greatest increases in antibody titres occurring in cities with the highest prior attack rates. Mean anti-S IgG was a strong predictor (adjusted R2 =0.89) of the number of severe cases caused by the Delta VOC in the seven cities. Conclusions Semi-quantitative anti-S antibody titres are informative about prior exposure and vaccination coverage and can inform on the potential impact of future SARS-CoV-2 variants. Summary In the face of near 100% SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, we show that average semi-quantitative anti-S titre predicted the extent of the Delta variant’s spread in Brazil. This is a valuable metric for future seroprevalence studies.

SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics in blood donors and COVID-19 epidemiology in eight Brazilian state capitals (preprint)

There are large differences in the shape and size of regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in Brazil. Here we tested monthly blood donation samples for IgG antibodies from March 2020 to March 2021 in eight of Brazil’s most populous cities. There was large variation in the inferred attack rate adjusted for seroreversion across cities, and seroprevalence was consistently smaller in women and donors older than 55 years. The age-specific infection fatality rate differed between cities and consistently increased with age. The infection hospitalisation rate (IHR) increased significantly during the gamma-dominated second wave in Manaus, suggesting increased morbidity of the Gamma VOC compared to previous variants circulating in Manaus. The higher disease penetrance associated with the health system’s collapse increased the overall IFR by a minimum factor of 2.91 (95% CrI 2.43–3.53). These results demonstrate large heterogeneity in epidemic spread and highlight the utility of blood donor serosurveillance to monitor SARS-CoV-2 epidemics.

Emergence and Spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern Delta Across Different Brazilian Regions (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC) Delta was first detected in India in October 2020. The first imported cases of the Delta variant in Brazil were identified in April 2021 in the Southern region, followed by more cases in different country regions during the following months. By early September 2021, Delta was already the dominant variant in the Southeastern (87%), Southern (73%), and Northeastern (52%) Brazilian regions. This work aimed to understand the spatiotemporal dissemination dynamics of Delta in Brazil. To this end, we employed a combination of Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Bayesian methods to reconstruct the evolutionary relationship of 2,264 of VOC Delta complete genomes (482 from this study) recovered across 21 out of 27 Brazilian federal units. Our phylogeographic analyses identified three major transmission clusters of Delta in Brazil. The clade BR-I (n = 1,560) arose in Rio de Janeiro in late April 2021 and was the major cluster behind the dissemination of the VOC Delta in the Southeastern, Northeastern, Northern, and Central-Western regions. The clade BR-II (n = 207) arose in the Parana state in late April 2021 and aggregated the largest fraction of sampled genomes from the Southern region. Lastly, the clade BR-III emerged in the Sao Paulo state in early June 2021 and remained mostly restricted to this state. In the rapid turnover of viral variants characteristic of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Brazilian regions seem to occupy different stages of an increasing prevalence of the VOC Delta in their epidemic profiles. This process demands continuous genomic and epidemiological surveillance toward identifying and mitigating new introductions, limiting their dissemination, and preventing the establishment of more significant outbreaks in a population already heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Phylogenetic-based inference reveals distinct transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Gamma and lineage P.2 in Brazil (preprint)

The COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil experienced two major country-wide lineage replacements, the first driven by the lineage P.2, formerly classified as variant of interest (VOI) Zeta in late 2020 and the second by the variant of concern (VOC) Gamma in early 2021. To better understand how these SARS-CoV-2 lineage turnovers occurred in Brazil, we analyzed 11,724 high-quality SARS-CoV-2 whole genomes of samples collected in different country regions between September 2020 and April 2021. Our findings indicate that the spatial dispersion of both variants in Brazil was driven by short and long-distance viral transmission. The lineage P.2 harboring Spike mutation E484K probably emerged around late July 2020 in the Rio de Janeiro (RJ) state, which contributed with most (~50%) inter-state viral disseminations, and only became locally established in most Brazilian states by October 2020. The VOC Gamma probably arose in November 2020 in the Amazonas (AM) state, which was responsible for 60-70% of the inter-state viral dissemination, and the earliest timing of community transmission of this VOC in many Brazilian states was already traced to December 2020. We estimate that variant Gamma was 1.56-3.06 more transmissible than variant P.2 co-circulating in RJ and that the median effective reproductive number (Re) of Gamma in RJ and SP states (Re = 1.59-1.91) was lower than in AM (Re = 3.55). In summary, although the epicenter of the lineage P.2 dissemination in Brazil was the heavily interconnected Southeastern region, it displayed a slower rate of spatial spread than the VOC Gamma originated in the more isolated Northern Brazilian region. Our findings also support that the VOC Gamma was more transmissible than lineage P.2, although the viral Re of the VOC varied according to the geographic context.

Unusual SARS-CoV-2 intra-host diversity reveals lineages superinfection (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 has infected almost 200 million people worldwide by July 2021 and the pandemic has been characterized by infection waves of viral lineages showing distinct fitness profiles. The simultaneous infection of a single individual by two distinct SARS-CoV-2 lineages provides a window of opportunity for viral recombination and the emergence of new lineages with differential phenotype. Several hundred SARS-CoV-2 lineages are currently well characterized but two main factors have precluded major coinfection/codetection analysis thus far: i) the low diversity of SARS-CoV-2 lineages during the first year of the pandemic which limited the identification of lineage defining mutations necessary to distinguish coinfecting viral lineages; and the ii) limited availability of raw sequencing data where abundance and distribution of intrasample/intrahost variability can be accessed. Here, we have put together a large sequencing dataset from Brazilian samples covering a period of 18 May 2020 to 30 April 2021 and probed it for unexpected patterns of high intrasample/intrahost variability. It enabled us to detect nine cases of SARS-CoV-2 coinfection with well characterized lineage-defining mutations. In addition, we matched these SARS-CoV-2 coinfections with spatio-temporal epidemiological data confirming their plausibility with the co-circulating lineages at the timeframe investigated. These coinfections represent around 0.61% of all samples investigated. Although our data suggests that coinfection with distinct SARS-CoV-2 lineages is a rare phenomenon, it is likely an underestimation and coinfection rates warrants further investigation. DATA SUMMARYThe raw fastq data of codetection cases are deposited on gisaid.org and correlated to gisaid codes: EPI_ISL_1068258, EPI_ISL_2491769, EPI_ISL_2491781, EPI_ISL_2645599, EPI_ISL_2661789, EPI_ISL_2661931, EPI_ISL_2677092, EPI_ISL_2777552, EPI_ISL_3869215. Supplementary data are available on https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.16570602.v1. The workflow code used in this study is publicly available on: https://github.com/dezordi/IAM_SARSCOV2.

Spread of Gamma (P.1) sub-lineages carrying Spike mutations close to the furin cleavage site and deletions in the N-terminal domain drives ongoing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Amazonas, Brazil (preprint)

Summary The Amazonas was one of the most heavily affected Brazilian states by the COVID-19 epidemic. Despite a large number of infected people, particularly during the second wave associated with the spread of the Variant of Concern (VOC) Gamma (lineage P.1), SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulate in the Amazonas. To understand how SARS-CoV-2 persisted in a human population with a high immunity barrier, we generated 1,188 SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequences from individuals diagnosed in the Amazonas state from 1st January to 6th July 2021, of which 38 were vaccine breakthrough infections. Our study reveals a sharp increase in the relative prevalence of Gamma plus (P.1+) variants, designated as Pango Lineages P.1.3 to P.1.6, harboring two types of additional Spike changes: deletions in the N-terminal (NTD) domain (particularly Δ 144 or Δ 141-144) associated with resistance to anti-NTD neutralizing antibodies or mutations at the S1/S2 junction (N679K or P681H) that probably enhance the binding affinity to the furin cleavage site, as suggested by our molecular dynamics simulations. As lineages P.1.4 (S:N679K) and P.1.6 (S:P681H) expanded (Re > 1) from March to July 2021, the lineage P.1 declined (Re < 1) and the median Ct value of SARS-CoV-2 positive cases in Amazonas significantly decreases. Still, we found no overrepresentation of P.1+ variants among breakthrough cases of fully vaccinated patients (71%) in comparison to unvaccinated individuals (93%). This evidence supports that the ongoing endemic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Amazonas is driven by the spread of new local Gamma/P.1 sub-lineages that are more transmissible, although not more efficient to evade vaccine-elicited immunity than the parental VOC. Finally, as SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread in human populations with a declining density of susceptible hosts, the risk of selecting new variants with higher infectivity are expected to increase.

Validation of a Novel Molecular Assay to the Diagnostic of COVID-19 Based on Real Time PCR with High Resolution Melting (preprint)

With the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic, the world faced an unprecedented need for RT-qPCR-based molecular diagnostic tests, leading to a lack of kits and inputs, especially in developing countries. Hence, the costs for commercial kits and inputs were overrated, stimulating the development of alternative methods to detect SARS-CoV-2 in clinical specimens. The availability of the complete SARS-CoV-2 genome at the beginning of the pandemic facilitated the development of specific primers and standardized laboratory protocols for Covid-19 molecular diagnostic. High-sensitive and cost-effective molecular biology technique based on the Melting Temperature differences between purine and pyrimidine bases can be used to the detection and genotyping of pathogens in clinical specimens. Here, a RT-qPCR assays with High Resolution Melting (HRM-RTqPCR) was developed for different regions of the SARS-CoV-2 genome (RdRp, E and N) and an internal control (human RNAse P gene). The assays were validated using synthetic sequences from the viral genome and clinical specimens (nasopharyngeal swabs, serum and saliva) of sixty-five patients with severe or moderate COVID-19 from different states in Brazil, in comparison to a commercial TaqMan RT-qPCR assay, as gold standard. The sensitivity of the HRM-RTqPCR assays targeting N, RdRp and E were 94.12, 98.04 and 92.16%, with 100% specificity to the 3 targets, and diagnostic accuracy of 95.38, 98.46 and 93.85%, respectively. Thus, the HRM-RTqPCR emerges as an alternative and low-cost methodology to increase the molecular diagnostic of patients suspicious for Covid-19, especially in restricted-budget laboratories.

A potential SARS-CoV-2 variant of interest (VOI) harboring mutation E484K in the Spike protein was identified within lineage B.1.1.33 circulating in Brazil (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Brazil was dominated by two lineages designated as B.1.1.28 and B.1.1.33. Two SARS-CoV-2 variants harboring mutations at the receptor-binding domain of the Spike (S) protein, designated as lineages P.1 and P.2, evolved within lineage B.1.1.28 and are rapidly spreading in Brazil. Lineage P.1 is considered a Variant of Concern (VOC) because of the presence of multiple mutations in the S protein (including K417T, E484K, N501Y), while lineage P.2 only harbors mutation S:E484K and is considered a Variant of Interest (VOI). Here we report the identification of a new SARS-CoV-2 VOI within lineage B.1.1.33 that also harbors mutation S:E484K and was detected in Brazil between November 2020 and February 2021. This VOI displayed four non-synonymous lineage-defining mutations (NSP3:A1711V, NSP6:F36L, S:E484K, and NS7b:E33A) and was designated as lineage N.9. The VOI N.9 probably emerged in August 2020 and has spread across different Brazilian states from the Southeast, South, North and Northeast regions.

The role of thrombophilia related polymorphisms in Coronavirus pandemic mortality (preprint)

The current study represents a comprehensive analysis in several databases and extensive bibliographic review, aiming to evaluate the correlation between the frequency of thrombophilia related polymorphisms with mortality rates by COVID-19 worldwide. We found 8 polymorphisms at 8 genes statistically correlated with Daily Death Rates of COVID-19, being an important clue to assignment of genes involved in poor prognosis of COVID-19, specifically the ones related to thromboembolic events.